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    <title>12Questions on statistical.systems</title>
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    <description>Recent content in 12Questions on statistical.systems</description>
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      <title>Gifts to a Future Self</title>
      <link>https://statistical.systems/blog/gifts_to_a_future_self/</link>
      <pubDate>Tue, 04 Aug 2026 10:00:00 -0700</pubDate>
      
      <guid>https://statistical.systems/blog/gifts_to_a_future_self/</guid>
      <description>A mathematician too weak for real work after brain surgery, dealing himself hand after hand of solitaire, and a why-ladder that keeps closing on the same two answers.</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In January 1946, the mathematician Stanislaw Ulam was recovering from an acute attack of viral encephalitis, an illness serious enough that doctors had operated on his brain to save his life. He spent weeks afterward confined to a hospital bed, too weak for most of the work that had filled his years at Los Alamos. To pass the time, he dealt himself hand after hand of Canfield solitaire, the cards the only thing in the room still asking anything of him.</p>
<p>A question started running through the boredom of his convalescence: <em>what were the actual odds of winning a given layout of Canfield solitaire?</em> He tried working out the precise combinatorics by hand, the way any mathematician of his training would default to, and found the calculation nearly impossible to finish cleanly. Then a simpler idea occurred to him. Instead of solving for the odds directly, he could deal himself a hundred hands, play each one out, and count how many won. The fraction would not be the true number, but it would close in on it, the same way an estimate always does once enough independent tries pile up behind it. One complicated question had become a binary one, asked a hundred times instead of solved once.</p>
<p>He mentioned the idea to a colleague, John von Neumann. The two of them realized a problem they needed solved, <em>how far a neutron travels through a material before it splits another atom</em>, was really the same shape of problem: too tangled to solve exactly, but countable in the same way a hand of solitaire is. The method that came out of that hospital bed became one of the most used computational tools in science. A colleague later named it Monte Carlo, after the casino, because Ulam had an uncle who gambled there.</p>
<p>Ulam&rsquo;s tally does not care what is riding on the question. It works the same for something forgotten five minutes after being asked, and it works the same for a question that does not let go for as long as you are alive.</p>
<p>One evening, out of nowhere, I asked my husband: <em>what is something I hate?</em></p>
<p>Without hesitation, he said: snakes. He was not wrong. I am genuinely afraid of them, and he had just been playing Sekiro, fighting a large silver snake that made me scream every time it lunged at his character on screen.</p>
<p>Almost on instinct, he turned the question back on me. &ldquo;Name something I hate,&rdquo; he said.</p>
<p>&ldquo;Being asked a lot of questions,&rdquo; I answered.</p>
<p>He smirked, the particular, proud smirk of someone who is satisfied with the answer.</p>
<p>He did not mean questions in general. What he meant, in his own terms, is learned helplessness: asking before trying, reaching for help on a problem I have not yet touched. I called it the &ldquo;Can you just&hellip;&rdquo; pull: the reflex to hand off any small household task, a stuck remote, a crooked shelf, a router light blinking the wrong color, before I have tried it myself.</p>
<p>The idea of learned helplessness translates to <em>Did I try first, or did I ask first?</em> Every answer to it becomes a piece of evidence toward a much bigger question: <em>what kind of wife am I becoming?</em> Or back to the binary version: <em>Am I meeting my own needs without driving him crazy?</em></p>
<p>None of that is my entire identity on the strength of one day alone. Repetition alone decides it, the same way no single hand decided Ulam&rsquo;s odds, only the full count did. This is the Law of Large Numbers at work. Any one hand of dealt cards is too noisy to trust by itself. The noise shrinks as more hands pile up behind it, not because a later hand is truer than an earlier one, only because there are more of them now. Ulam did not need his first deal to be a winner. He needed the tally.</p>
<h2 id="a-loop-instead-of-a-calculation">A Loop Instead of a Calculation</h2>
<p>What if I scored it the way Ulam might have? Black card, a spade or a club, if I try the task myself first, even briefly, even badly, before asking. Red card, a heart or a diamond, if &ldquo;can you just&hellip;&rdquo; comes out of my mouth before I have touched the problem.</p>
<p>The first week would be brutal, and days ten through twenty would bring a partial recovery. Somewhere between day thirty and day forty would come an honest backslide, a bad stretch proving that a real habit does not move in a straight line no matter how the story prefers it to. By day fifty the climb would resume, slow and noisy, and settle somewhere past the halfway mark by day ninety. Day seven&rsquo;s low and day ninety&rsquo;s average would not be a story about willpower improving, but the same underlying process with less wobble left in it, the noise shrinking as more days pile up behind it rather than any single day getting better. Somewhere around day sixty, the sighing would stop, and what replaced it would look almost like curiosity, the raised eyebrow of a man watching an experiment he did not sign up for start to work.</p>
<table>
  <thead>
      <tr>
          <th>Day</th>
          <th>Card</th>
          <th>Tried it myself first?</th>
          <th>Running average</th>
      </tr>
  </thead>
  <tbody>
      <tr>
          <td>1</td>
          <td>♥</td>
          <td>No</td>
          <td>0.00</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>2</td>
          <td>♦</td>
          <td>No</td>
          <td>0.00</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>3</td>
          <td>♥</td>
          <td>No</td>
          <td>0.00</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>4</td>
          <td>♣</td>
          <td>Yes</td>
          <td>0.25</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>5</td>
          <td>♦</td>
          <td>No</td>
          <td>0.20</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>6</td>
          <td>♥</td>
          <td>No</td>
          <td>0.15</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>7</td>
          <td>♦</td>
          <td>No</td>
          <td>0.15</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>8</td>
          <td>♠</td>
          <td>Yes</td>
          <td>0.25</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>9</td>
          <td>♥</td>
          <td>No</td>
          <td>0.20</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>10</td>
          <td>♣</td>
          <td>Yes</td>
          <td>0.30</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>20</td>
          <td>♠</td>
          <td>Yes</td>
          <td>0.40</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>30</td>
          <td>♣</td>
          <td>Yes</td>
          <td>0.40</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>40</td>
          <td>♥</td>
          <td>No</td>
          <td>0.30</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>50</td>
          <td>♠</td>
          <td>Yes</td>
          <td>0.35</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>60</td>
          <td>♣</td>
          <td>Yes</td>
          <td>0.40</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>70</td>
          <td>♠</td>
          <td>Yes</td>
          <td>0.45</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>80</td>
          <td>♣</td>
          <td>Yes</td>
          <td>0.50</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>90</td>
          <td>♠</td>
          <td>Yes</td>
          <td>0.50</td>
      </tr>
  </tbody>
</table>
<p><img loading="lazy" src="/images/gifts-90-day-chart.svg" type="" alt="Running average, tried it myself first, day 1 to day 90"  /></p>
<p>The numbers above are illustrative, not a real ninety days I counted. What is real is the evening this section opened on, and the smirk. What is invented is the tally that would have followed it, if I had kept one.</p>
<p>He named the pull correctly in one guess, no data required. But a single correct guess is not the same as knowing the odds, the same way one winning hand of solitaire is not the same as knowing you will win again.</p>
<p>The best thing about asking questions is the creativity it requires to reframe them. That same creativity is what turned <em>did I try first</em> into <em>who am I becoming</em>. Some small questions can be blown up into unanswerable ones if you keep asking yourself &ldquo;what am I really asking.&rdquo; Some belong to the <a href="/blog/twelve_questions_invited_in_for_tea/">twelve favorite questions</a> worth carrying for life, the kind no single answer closes out.</p>
<p>For instance, <em>who am I becoming</em> is too big a question to run directly. A mental model like inversion can answer it, but each one only adds to an endless list of possible answers. What breaks the complexity down into something actionable is not another mental model but a framework built from a single question, asked once, then asked again about its own answer: not who am I becoming, but why do I do what I do.</p>
<p>On January 3, 2024, in a notebook I keep titled Spirited Away, I ran a version of that same loop on myself, using nothing more sophisticated than one repeated question.</p>
<blockquote>
<p><strong>Why do I do what I do?</strong></p>
<ol>
<li>Why do I do what I do? <em>Achieving my wants and needs.</em></li>
<li>What about achieving my wants and needs is important to me? <em>Meeting my wants and needs positively.</em></li>
<li>What about meeting my wants and needs positively is important to me? <em>Developing a positive identity.</em></li>
<li>What about developing a positive identity is important to me? <em>Meeting my wants and needs positively, in a sustainable way.</em></li>
</ol>
<p><strong>LOOP iterates.</strong></p>
<ol start="5">
<li>What about meeting my wants and needs positively is important to me? <em>Developing a positive identity.</em></li>
<li>What about developing a positive identity is important to me? <em>Meeting my wants and needs positively.</em></li>
<li>What about meeting my wants and needs positively is important to me? <em>Developing a positive identity.</em></li>
</ol></blockquote>
<p>Layers five through seven do not introduce anything new. Each one is another observation folded into the same running estimate, positive identity, then meeting the needs positively again, back and forth.</p>
<p>&ldquo;Meeting my wants and needs positively, in a sustainable way&rdquo; has a plain, unglamorous test case in this marriage: getting what I want, help, ease, without driving my husband a little crazy in the process. Sustainable here is not a vague virtue. It is the literal difference between a request he is happy to grant and a pattern he has learned to dread. Is becoming someone he does not sigh at part of who I am becoming, as a wife?</p>
<h2 id="what-the-loop-surfaces">What the Loop Surfaces</h2>
<p>The seven-layer version is a longer run of an old move. Sakichi Toyoda built it into how he ran his loom company, asking why a problem happened and then why that answer was true until the real cause showed itself. That habit traveled with the business when his son Kiichiro used its capital to found the automobile venture that became Toyota Motor Corporation. A generation later, Taiichi Ohno set it down in writing as the five whys: ask why a problem happened, then ask why that is true, and keep going, usually five rounds deep, until the surface explanation gives way to the actual cause. A stalled machine is rarely fixed by patching the part that finally failed. The worn pump, the missing filter, the habit nobody questioned upstream are what asking why again and again eventually surfaces. My ladder runs the same move on a motive instead of a machine, two rounds further than the shop floor version, because a self is a harder thing to root-cause than a fuse.</p>
<p>Who am I becoming carries its own rule, inherited from the piece the question first came from: a real favorite question does not get answered once and filed away. It has to stay open, re-tested against whatever shows up next. The loop is what that re-testing looks like in practice. It does not answer who am I becoming. It hands the question a fresh, checkable state every time it runs, and the same loop can take in any new habit or decision that shows up later and return a situational read, without the question ever closing for good.</p>
<p>A positive identity, in the plainest version I have written down for myself, is an identity that meets my wants and needs in a sustainable way, the same wants and needs <a href="/blog/i_wear_the_mask_it_does_not_wear_me/">this article</a> reads into five different frameworks across a century. Not a title, not a mood, a working relationship between who I am and what I need, built to hold up over a season rather than one good day.</p>
<p>The mechanic underneath it is small enough to run more than once a day, and it runs on gifts rather than ballots. Developing a positive identity, layer three of the ladder, needs something concrete to stand on, a gift to a future self: a small, specific thing given today that the person I am becoming can use. Every choice, the way I spend an hour, the way I answer a hard question, the way I show up on a day nothing is asking to be witnessed, is one of those gifts, and every gift given is a piece of evidence.</p>
<blockquote>
<p><strong>A Closing Invitation</strong>. <em>Ulam&rsquo;s cards, the pull scored the same way, the seven-layer ladder, and the five whys behind it were never four separate things. Each one runs the same move: not solving a question once, but asking it again until the answer holds. Pick one ordinary choice today, not a big one, what to eat, how to answer a message, whether to sit down or keep moving, and notice it as a card turned face up before you play it, not after. Notice which way you are pulled before you act, and notice whether the choice you make agrees with that pull or overrides it. Either way, it is a gift, handed to whoever you are becoming, small enough to give without ceremony. Do this again tomorrow, on a different small choice. There is no need to keep score and no target number of hands to win before anything counts. The tally never asks whether this particular round was a good one. It only asks for the next one, and adds it to the same running count it kept before, one gift at a time.</em></p></blockquote>
<p><strong>Intellectual Honesty Note.</strong> Stanislaw Ulam&rsquo;s illness, his recovery, the solitaire hands, the conversation with John von Neumann, and the method&rsquo;s later naming after the Monte Carlo casino are all real and drawn from the historical record, most directly Eckhardt&rsquo;s 1987 account in Los Alamos Science and Ulam&rsquo;s own memoir. The estimate-by-counting idea described here is genuinely the Law of Large Numbers in its original, most practical form, not a loose analogy borrowed from a different branch of mathematics. The conversation with my husband, the snakes, the question turned back on me, is real, reported as it happened. The ninety-day card count that follows it, along with the table and the chart, is illustrative, not a real tally I kept. The five whys lineage, Sakichi Toyoda&rsquo;s original principle and Taiichi Ohno&rsquo;s account of it in the Toyota Production System, is also real, drawn from Ohno&rsquo;s own record rather than a secondhand summary. The &ldquo;7 Layers of Why&rdquo; ladder is my own journal material, reproduced here close to verbatim.</p>
<h2 id="references">References</h2>
<p>Eckhardt, R. (1987). Stan Ulam, John von Neumann, and the Monte Carlo method. <em>Los Alamos Science</em>, 15, 131-137.</p>
<p>Ohno, T. (1988). <em>Toyota Production System: Beyond Large-Scale Production</em>. Productivity Press.</p>
<p>Ulam, S. M. (1976). <em>Adventures of a Mathematician</em>. Charles Scribner&rsquo;s Sons.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    
    <item>
      <title>Questions that Outlived the Answer</title>
      <link>https://statistical.systems/blog/questions_that_outlived_the_answer/</link>
      <pubDate>Tue, 30 Jun 2026 10:00:00 -0700</pubDate>
      
      <guid>https://statistical.systems/blog/questions_that_outlived_the_answer/</guid>
      <description>A look at how mental models work as both reasoning tools and a test for which favorite questions can accept an answer at all.</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In the 1840s, at the Vienna General Hospital, there were two maternity wards standing a short walk apart. One was staffed by midwives. The other was staffed by physicians and medical students. In the worst years, women who delivered in the doctor-run ward faced a mortality rate as high as eighteen percent, compared to roughly two percent in the midwife-run ward. Women admitted to the doctor-run ward, once they realized where they had landed, begged on their knees to be moved to the midwife-run ward instead.</p>
<p>A young physician named Ignaz Semmelweis set out to find the cause.</p>
<p>His first guess was posture. Women in the midwife ward tended to give birth on their side, women in the doctor ward on their back. He asked the doctors to change position. The death rate did not move.</p>
<p>His second guess was fear. A priest walked through the doctor-run ward ringing a bell whenever a woman died, and Semmelweis wondered whether the sound itself was killing patients through sheer dread. He asked the priest to take a different route and stop ringing the bell. Again, there was no improvement.</p>
<p>Both guesses were visible, testable, close enough at hand to try. It took a death outside the ward entirely to break the pattern. A colleague of his, a professor named Jakob Kolletschka, died after an accidental cut on his finger during an autopsy. Kolletschka&rsquo;s own autopsy showed the very signs Semmelweis had seen in the women who died of childbed fever. Semmelweis realized the doctors in his ward were coming directly from performing autopsies to delivering babies, without washing anything off their hands in between. He did not have a word for what was being carried over but he had a mechanism. He ordered every doctor to disinfect their hands with chlorinated lime before examining a patient, every time, no exceptions. Within a year, the mortality rate in the doctor-run ward fell to 1.27 percent, lower than the midwife-run ward&rsquo;s own rate of 1.33 percent that year.</p>
<p>Before going any further, it helps to be direct about why a story from a Vienna maternity ward in the 1840s should matter to someone who has never worked in a hospital and never will. Most people are carrying a version of posture or a version of the bell right now, just in something closer to home. An explanation gets picked for why a relationship keeps hitting the same wall, why a habit will not stick, why a project at work keeps stalling right where it always does, and it is rarely picked because it was tested and held up. It is picked because it was the first thing close enough to reach for, and it survives mostly because nobody has acted on it directly enough for it to fail out loud. Try harder at the habit and it still slips by the second week. Fix the one thing in the relationship that seemed obvious and that fight comes back a month later anyway. Nothing about the explanation was disproven before that. It just had not been tested yet, the way posture and the bell had not been tested until someone changed them and the death rate refused to move. What follows is a way of catching that kind of guess earlier, before it costs what Semmelweis&rsquo;s guesses cost him.</p>
<p>A separate practice of mine is keeping twelve questions open on purpose rather than settled, ones that stay interesting long after any answer arrives, described in <a href="https://statistical.systems/blog/twelve_questions_invited_in_for_tea/">Twelve Questions, Invited in for Tea</a>. Mental models turn out to do two different jobs for a question like that, tools for searching out a mechanism, and a test for whether a question can accept one at all, and Semmelweis&rsquo;s ward is where both jobs are easiest to see.</p>
<h2 id="what-a-mental-model-is">What a Mental Model Is</h2>
<p>A mental model is an internal representation of how something behaves, built by watching a mechanism operate closely enough to reason with it and predict what happens next, even in situations never directly observed. It does not tell anyone what to do. Knowing that something on unwashed hands could travel from a corpse to a patient is a mental model. It does not say when to wash, or how often, or in what solution. It only says how the transfer happens, in any ward, on any morning.</p>
<h3 id="1-mental-models-as-reasoning-tools">1. Mental Models as Reasoning Tools</h3>
<p>The version most people use day to day is Shane Parrish&rsquo;s cataloguing of recurring mental models: general reasoning moves like inversion, first principles, and Occam&rsquo;s razor, ways of thinking through any problem, not pictures of how one specific thing works. None of the three originate with Parrish, but his cataloguing is where most people meet them, and they are the tools that got Semmelweis to a candidate mechanism in the first place. Semmelweis&rsquo;s ward is a good place to see what each one does.</p>
<p><strong>Inversion.</strong> The natural question was what is killing the doctors&rsquo; patients. The more useful question, and the one Semmelweis was slow to ask, was why do the midwives&rsquo; patients keep living. Posture and the bell were both still answers to the first question. Turning the question around did not hand him the mechanism directly, but it pointed him at the right comparison, the one ward that was somehow not a problem, rather than only interrogating the one that was.</p>
<p><strong>First principles.</strong> The inherited convention of the time was miasma theory, the idea that bad air in general caused disease. Reasoning from that convention would have kept Semmelweis looking at ventilation, crowding, the general atmosphere of the ward. Reasoning from what was directly observed, one ward killing at a much higher rate than the other with nothing else obviously different between them, is what put the miasma explanation aside entirely rather than trying to patch it.</p>
<p><strong>Occam&rsquo;s razor.</strong> Posture and the bell are often misremembered as the simple explanations, discarded in favor of something more complicated. They were not simple, they were just close at hand. The simplest explanation consistent with everything observed was the one difference nobody had thought to look at, what the doctors were doing with their hands in the hour before they walked in.</p>
<p>The same three moves generalize past this one hospital. When an explanation for a stalled habit or a recurring argument feels obvious the moment it is reached for, invert the question first: instead of asking what is causing the problem, ask what is different about the one version of the situation where it does not happen. Reason from what can be observed rather than from whatever explanation happened to be inherited, the way miasma theory was inherited before Semmelweis set it aside. And when two explanations both fit, take the one that requires checking something nobody has looked at yet, not the one that happens to be sitting closest at hand.</p>
<h3 id="2-mental-models-as-a-sorting-test">2. Mental Models as a Sorting Test</h3>
<p>The second is different: a mental model can also test whether a question is the kind that has a mechanism to find in the first place, which is where the twelve favorite questions come back in.</p>
<p>The mechanism, once verified, opened onto a different set of questions entirely, the kind that did not close when the number did. Putting myself in his shoes, here is what five of my own twelve favorite questions, using the numbering from the <a href="https://statistical.systems/blog/twelve_questions_invited_in_for_tea/">original list</a>, would have asked next.</p>
<p><strong>Question 7. How to shape an idea so it is ready to be received?</strong> He had the data. He published it, sent copies to prominent physicians across Europe, and watched most of them dismiss it anyway. Having the answer, and in retrospect the right answer, did not mean he had found a way to make anyone else hold it.</p>
<p><strong>Question 5. Given any problem, how to find the question worth answering?</strong> The diagnostic question, what is killing these women, he answered in months. The question he never seemed to resolve was different: whether the fight worth having was convincing Vienna&rsquo;s medical establishment, or simply running his own ward correctly and letting the results speak for themselves. He kept choosing the fight.</p>
<p><strong>Question 4. What is the objective function?</strong> He said, more than once, that he wanted no personal credit, only the practical outcome of a mother keeping her child. But the letters he wrote later are furious and accusatory in a way that reads like a man chasing something else too, being heard, being vindicated, maybe just being believed by someone. Those are two different objectives, and it is not obvious he ever picked one.</p>
<p><strong>Question 12. Who are his people?</strong> Johann Klein, his own superior, looked at a falling mortality rate and credited a new ventilation system, on a ward whose ventilation had not changed at all, taking the thing that happened to change around then and calling it the cause without asking what else moved. Klein held real power over Semmelweis&rsquo;s career and used it. When Semmelweis&rsquo;s assistant professorship came up for renewal in 1849, Klein did not renew it. Whoever Klein was to him, he was not one of Semmelweis&rsquo;s people, and losing him meant losing the answer to who counted as his people at all, once the men who trained him had decided he was the problem rather than the finding.</p>
<p><strong>Question 11. What does he owe the world?</strong> Physicians across Europe kept dismissing the idea, year after year, even with the book in hand. He knew something that could save lives, and the people with the power to act on it would not. None of it resolved. His mind gave out under the weight of carrying it, and he died in an asylum in 1865, accepted only once he was no longer there to know it.</p>
<p>Not all five of these resist equally, and separating which do from which do not matters here. Some have an actual mechanism to grip, something with parts that push against each other, not sitting side by side, something that still explains a case it was never built for. Others do not, no matter how carefully the description was built.</p>
<p>Questions four and eleven, what is the objective function and what does he owe the world, are values questions: they have nothing for a mechanism to grip in the first place. There is no candidate explanation to test, because there is nothing describing how something works, only a claim about what ought to be wanted or what is owed. A perfectly built model of how credit and recognition operate inside a medical hierarchy would still not tell Semmelweis whether he should have wanted vindication or only outcomes. That is a decision, not a description, and no mechanism, however well tested, was ever going to settle it.</p>
<p>Questions seven and twelve are a different case: call them mechanism questions. This is where a real explanation holds up. Take who are his people. A candidate mechanism is available: people defend a position when the evidence backing it outweighs the cost to their own standing, and abandon it when the cost outweighs the evidence. That is two things pushing against each other, evidence on one side, reputational cost on the other, and it does not only describe Klein, it describes any colleague deciding whether to defend or abandon a position once their own name is attached to being wrong. It does not decide who Semmelweis&rsquo;s people were. It describes how people in his position tend to behave once their own standing is on the line, which is close enough to an answer that a person could act on directly. Shape an idea so it is ready to be received holds up just as well: an idea&rsquo;s chance of adoption comes down to how much it threatens existing authority weighed against how credible its messenger already is, and that holds well past this one hospital. Question five, given any problem how to find the one worth answering, sits in between, part describable pattern, part a matter of worth that no description ever settles.</p>
<p>A guess and a mechanism can feel identical from the inside, right up until one of them gets tested and the other does not. Posture and fear felt exactly as reasonable to Semmelweis, in the moment, as cadaverous particles did once he found them. Some of my own twelve behave like seven and twelve, mechanism questions informed by something substantial nearly to the point of answered. Others behave like four and eleven, values questions that no mechanism will ever close, because they were never asking how something works to begin with. What a real mechanism does for a question in that second group is not close it. It gives the question something solid to push against instead of instinct and hurt feelings alone, the same way a confirmed mechanism let the question about Klein finally get asked in specific, checkable terms rather than staying a vague grievance. A guess wearing a model&rsquo;s clothes cannot do that. It only feels like it can, right up until it is tested. That is the difference that matters, not whether a favorite question ever gets answered, since some of them never will, but whether the ones that stay open get engaged with something concrete.</p>
<p>None of this needs a hospital, or a hundred and eighty years of hindsight, to put to use. It needs being honest about which explanation currently running a person&rsquo;s own decisions is a posture guess and which is an actual mechanism, and being willing to find out which is which before the cost of being wrong grows the way Semmelweis&rsquo;s did.</p>
<blockquote>
<p><strong>A Closing Reflection</strong>. <em>Posture and the bell felt just as reasonable as the real cause, right up until someone tested them. The four guesses below are a chance to run that same test on something smaller and much more ordinary.</em></p>
<ol>
<li>Where do you guess instead of measure, and get away with it most of the time: timing how long something will take, how much to pack, how much to say in a message before it reads as too much or too little, how long to wait before following up on something.</li>
<li>Where has someone else corrected your approximation, and the correction is what stayed rather than the original guess: a moment someone said no, it is not like that, here is why, and the reason stuck with you afterward.</li>
<li>Where do you approximate on purpose, knowing you are doing it, because the real thing does not earn precision, versus where you approximate without noticing and only find out later that it cost you something.</li>
<li>Where do you approximate specifically because you do not care to do otherwise, not from ignorance but from a deliberate choice not to invest attention there, a slightly more honest version of eyeballing than the usual story of someone who wanted precision and did not know how to get it.</li>
</ol>
<p><em>Sit with those for a minute rather than answering right away. The one that gives a specific afternoon, a specific voice, a specific object in hand is the one worth zooming into. Sorting out which one it is isn&rsquo;t the mental model itself. It is the first step toward one, the same way noticing that the two wards differed only in what the doctors did with their hands was a first step, not yet the germ theory that followed. Search for the mechanism the way inversion, first principles, and Occam&rsquo;s razor did. A mechanism, once recognized as one, is worth continuing to press on.</em></p></blockquote>
<h2 id="where-this-practice-came-from">Where This Practice Came From</h2>
<p>Craik proposed in 1943 that the mind builds small working models of reality to test outcomes before acting, and Johnson-Laird&rsquo;s later work kept the core of it: a mental model is a representation used to reason and predict, not just a summary, one whose parts push against each other and that still holds up in a case it was not built for. Parrish&rsquo;s cataloguing of recurring mental models, drawn together across his Farnam Street work, is where most people encounter tools like inversion, first principles, and Occam&rsquo;s razor today, though none of the three originate with him. Senge&rsquo;s <em>The Fifth Discipline</em> named mental models as one of the disciplines of a learning organization, the often unexamined images of how the world works that quietly shape action.</p>
<p><strong>Intellectual Honesty Note.</strong> The mechanism question and values question naming, and the framing of mental models as doing two separate jobs, a reasoning tool and a sorting test, is my own construction, not inherited directly from Craik, Johnson-Laird, Parrish, or Senge.</p>
<h2 id="references">References</h2>
<p>Craik, K. J. W. (1943). <em>The Nature of Explanation.</em> Cambridge University Press.</p>
<p>Gombos, Róza. &ldquo;Ignaz Semmelweis.&rdquo; Science History Institute, September 15, 2025. <a href="https://www.sciencehistory.org/education/scientific-biographies/ignaz-semmelweis/">https://www.sciencehistory.org/education/scientific-biographies/ignaz-semmelweis/</a></p>
<p>Johnson-Laird, P. N. (1983). <em>Mental Models: Towards a Cognitive Science of Language, Inference, and Consciousness</em> (No. 6). Harvard University Press.</p>
<p>Johnson-Laird, P. N., Girotto, V., &amp; Legrenzi, P. (1998). <em>Mental Models: a Gentle Guide for Outsiders.</em> Sistemi intelligenti, 9(68), 33.</p>
<p>Johnston, Katrina. &ldquo;Ignaz Semmelweis: The Saviour of Mothers.&rdquo; Canadian Museum of Health Care, 2022. <a href="https://www.museumofhealthcare.ca/blog/ignaz-semmelweis-the-saviour-of-mothers">https://www.museumofhealthcare.ca/blog/ignaz-semmelweis-the-saviour-of-mothers</a></p>
<p>Parrish, S. (2019). <em>The Great Mental Models: General Thinking Concepts.</em> Latticework Publishing.</p>
<p>Senge, P. M. (2006). <em>The Fifth Discipline: The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization.</em> Broadway Business.</p>
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      <title>Twelve Questions, Invited in for Tea</title>
      <link>https://statistical.systems/blog/twelve_questions_invited_in_for_tea/</link>
      <pubDate>Tue, 23 Jun 2026 10:00:00 -0700</pubDate>
      
      <guid>https://statistical.systems/blog/twelve_questions_invited_in_for_tea/</guid>
      <description>A reflection on Feynman&amp;#39;s practice of keeping a dozen favorite questions alive in the mind.</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Cascais is where the questions started popping into my head, one after another, uninvited.</p>
<p>I had been burned out for a while by then, the kind that a weekend off does not touch, the kind where you keep working harder anyway because slowing down feels riskier than staying tired. A conference in Lisbon had come up, and Cascais, a small coastal town in Portugal about half an hour outside the city, felt like a reasonable place to disappear to for a few days afterward.</p>
<p>Where I was sitting, the Atlantic in front of me, the shoreline had cracked into strange stacked layers, dark rock split into long straight lines, like something got sliced instead of formed. Wildflowers grew right out of the cracks anyway, small and yellow, everywhere, indifferent to the rock. I remember feeling relaxed and exhausted at the same time, which should not be possible but was. Something felt off, or missing, even with all of that in front of me. I had already tried the version where a new environment fixes it. It had not.</p>
<p>At some point, looking at the horizon, I started picturing each question as something small with wings, landing on a windowsill inside my mind and tapping to be let in, the way a thought arrives except with enough presence that it felt less like thinking and more like being visited. Picturing the mind as a house is not a metaphor I reached for on purpose. It just arrived that way, fully formed, the way a room shows up in a dream already furnished before anyone decided what should be in it.</p>
<p>So that is the creature in the rest of this piece. Not a literal insect, just the shape I give to the feeling of a question landing somewhere it intends to stay. In my head, it looked something like this: about the size of a thumb, wings thin and layered like two dragonfly wings stacked on top of each other, catching light faintly blue one second and faintly gold the next. Its body soft and round, built for sitting rather than standing. And the eyes, enormous, dark, wet looking, the exact kind of look Puss in Boots is known for, the kind that wins an argument before a word gets said.</p>
<p>It was carrying something. A single cube of sugar, held against its chest with both arms, like it was bracing under a weight far too big for it, insisting on contributing something to the tea it was clearly hoping would get offered.</p>
<p>I let it in. I invited it for tea.</p>
<p>I do not know exactly when the questions actually started, if I am honest. Most likely before Cascais, probably somewhere in the middle of the burnout itself, quiet enough to mistake for exhaustion, for a bad mood, for needing a vacation. It is possible they had been there for a while and Cascais was just the first place still enough to notice them.</p>
<p>When I got back to the house I was staying in, three more were waiting.</p>
<p>They did not arrive politely, one after another. They came together, wings all beating at slightly different speeds, each carrying its own small sugar cube, all looking up with those same eyes like they had been discussing among themselves who would go first. I opened the window for all three.</p>
<p>After that there was no pattern to it. One showed up on a morning walk, landing on my shoulder without asking. Another arrived at around midnight while I was doomscrolling. A few came in pairs, which I had not expected, like they had agreed to travel together rather than risk being ignored alone.</p>
<p>I started writing them down so I would not lose track. Not on anything meant for it, just the back of a notebook I had with me for something else entirely. Within a few days I had filled almost twenty pages. Some of what I wrote was not even close to a full question yet, just the shape of one, a feeling with no sentence built around it. I crossed a lot of it out. I rewrote some of what I had crossed out a few days later.</p>
<p>By the time I left Cascais, the notebook had more of their handwriting in it than mine, in a manner of speaking. Not one of them ever really left after that. They just moved with me, wings and sugar cubes and all, and every so often, one I thought had gone quiet taps on a window again like no time has passed at all.</p>
<p>Mine now holds twelve, though it did not start out that tidy.</p>
<p>The idea of keeping a set of twelve favorite questions comes from Richard Feynman, the Nobel Prize–winning physicist. The exact quote is often traced back to a recollection by the mathematician Gian-Carlo Rota, who remembered Feynman&rsquo;s advice on how to think like a genius. Feynman is remembered for saying that a person has to keep a dozen of their favorite problems constantly present in mind, even though most of them will sit dormant most of the time. Every new trick or result that crosses one&rsquo;s path gets tested against each of the twelve to see whether it helps. Breakthroughs that look like sudden genius are often the result of a mind that has been quietly working on the same handful of questions for years.</p>
<h2 id="my-twelve-favorite-questions">My Twelve Favorite Questions</h2>
<ol>
<li>What is the end for which I am created?</li>
<li>Who am I becoming?</li>
<li>What is the place of the in-between person, fluent in many worlds but native to none?</li>
<li>What is my objective function?</li>
<li>Given any problem, how do I find the question actually worth answering?</li>
<li>When should I pivot from divergence to convergence?</li>
<li>How do I shape an idea so it is ready to be received?</li>
<li>How do I master beginning again?</li>
<li>How do I create and capture value?</li>
<li>What daily practices keep my mind sharp and my knowledge system trustworthy?</li>
<li>What do I owe the world?</li>
<li>Who are my people?</li>
</ol>
<p>A question does not make this list just because it feels big enough. It has to hold up in two ways, though I did not sit down and invent these formally. They are just how I have caught myself sorting things over time.</p>
<p><strong>The Standing Test.</strong> A genuine favorite question stays open. Question three can be reframed as &ldquo;where does someone belong when they are shaped by many cultures, many disciplines, and more than one career?&rdquo; It looks like a question that gets settled once a person picks a city or a field and stays there, but it does not work that way. The belonging keeps being renegotiated, and how to turn that in-betweenness into purpose is not something a single decision has ever closed out. Question eleven behaves the same way. It can also be read as &ldquo;what is my ikigai, my reason for being?&rdquo; It just keeps asking for a slightly different answer as the years change what I love, what I am good at, what I can get paid for, and what the world needs. A question that closes for good the day a satisfying answer arrives was never a favorite question. It was a task, and tasks are legitimate on their own terms, they simply do not behave this way once finished.</p>
<p><strong>The Container Test.</strong> A favorite question resists being solved once and filed away. Question four, what is my objective function, could easily be mistaken for a single decision if it is not watched carefully. &ldquo;Should this job be taken&rdquo; looks like the real question in the moment, but the job is only a test case. The objective function is what the decision is actually being measured against, and it stays in play long after the job itself has been accepted or turned down or forgotten. Question two, who am I becoming, fails the same way if it is not watched. The person I was becoming at twenty five is not the person I became at thirty, and no single choice ever finished the question off. I have made this mistake more than once, spending weeks agonizing over one offer when the offer itself was never really the point.</p>
<p>The twelve are not twelve separate itches pulling in random directions. Grouped by what each one is actually asking, they settle into six clusters that build on each other in order.</p>
<p>Questions one and two are the North Star, the reason I exist and who I am becoming. Question three is Identity, where that reason meets a life lived between worlds. Question four is the Compass, the thing that tells signal from noise once direction is set.</p>
<p>Then comes Craft, questions five through eight, where the actual work happens. It quietly follows the shape of a project: finding the real question, committing to a direction, shaping it for others, starting over once it has, at least partly, failed.</p>
<p>Fuel is questions nine and ten, what keeps craft from running out of gas, money on one side and daily practice on the other. And Communion, questions eleven and twelve, is where all of it eventually has to land. What is owed, and who it is owed to. None of it means much if nobody is around to share it with.</p>
<p>A written list of questions becomes a filter. Something read, a conversation had, something noticed in the world, all of it can be tested against the list to see if it offers a new angle or a small piece of an answer. Curiosity gets a direction this way, without getting narrowed. There is no commitment to a single project or a single answer, only to a handful of long running inquiries that can absorb new information over months or years.</p>
<p>A list like this ends up being deeply personal, closer to a self portrait than a to do list. It used to look like a lack of focus. Now I can see each pull of interest is a question asking to be tested again.</p>
<blockquote>
<p><strong>A Closing Invitation</strong>. <em>Not every question that keeps circling back announces itself the way the first twelve did, wings catching light, sugar cube in hand. Some show up smaller and less patient, buzzing at the same spot in a person&rsquo;s attention over and over, easy to swat at like a gnat rather than let in like a guest. It is worth pausing before the swatting. A question that will not stop returning, on a drive, mid task, right before sleep, is worth writing down in whatever rough shape it arrives in, even half a sentence on a notes app or on the back of a page meant for something else. There is no need to have twelve, or even three, sorted and tested by the end of a single sitting. It is enough to start noticing which ones keep coming back, and give them somewhere to land.</em></p></blockquote>
<h2 id="where-this-practice-came-from">Where This Practice Came From</h2>
<p>The practice traces to Feynman&rsquo;s own advice, though Feynman does not appear to have left behind a single definitive written list of his own twelve questions. What has been passed down is the advice itself, most durably through Rota&rsquo;s recollection of it. In more recent years the practice has been popularized further by writers such as Tiago Forte, whose work on personal knowledge management helped turn a piece of oral advice into a repeatable practice.</p>
<p><strong>Intellectual Honesty Note.</strong> The twelve favorite problems is a piece of inherited advice rather than a documented method with a fixed procedure. The six clusters, North Star, Identity, Compass, Craft, Fuel, and Communion, along with the reading of Craft as a hidden project lifecycle, are my own construction as well, fitted to this particular twelve rather than inherited from any source. The image running through this piece, of a question arriving as something small with wings and being let in rather than turned away, is my own construction as well, built for this particular telling rather than lifted from any one source.</p>
<p>The twelve are still at the table as this is being written, tea long gone cold, remaining sugar cubes stacked in a small uneven pile at the center, in no hurry to leave. That was always the point of letting them in.</p>
<h2 id="references">References</h2>
<p>Forte, T. (2022). <em>Building a Second Brain: A Proven Method to Organize your Digital Life and Unlock your Creative Potential.</em> Simon and Schuster.</p>
<p>Rota, G. C. (2008). <em>Indiscrete Thoughts.</em> Springer Science and Business Media.</p>
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