Where the Healthy Years Go ยท four essays
At a Glance
Does a published count of the years countries spend in poor health hold up when rebuilt from public data?
- 1Every Candle Still BurnsDoes the count of pulled candles hold up, counted again?
- 2The Age to Plan ToDoes spending's link hold beside neighbors and each country's own past?
- 3What Lit the LogWhich illnesses pull the candles, in two piles or three?
- 4Less Than Zero SecondsWhere does the pile go by 2100, and which line has earned trust?
| Idea | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two counts, not one | ||||
| Longer lives, more candles | ||||
| Rebuilt without the code | ||||
| Mean to spread | ||||
| The slow wear wins |
Two counts, not one
A long life and a well life are two counts, and a plan needs both.
- Part 1The headline gives one number; the other 12.5 are the years someone drives you.
- Part 2The retirement form has no box for the other 12.5.
Longer lives, more candles
The more years a country lives, the more of them it spends unwell.
- Part 1Life expectancy alone explains about four-fifths of the spread in the gap.
- Part 2Each added year of life comes with about 0.15 years of added gap.
- Part 4Carried to 2100, the median country's gap grows 20.2 percent.
Rebuilt without the code
Rebuilt from public data and the methods section alone, most findings held and a few moved.
- Part 1The gap came to 9.3 against the paper's 9.1; its two findings do not move.
- Part 2Its spatial model cannot be rebuilt, only one like it.
- Part 3A silhouette test chose two piles where the study chose three.
- Part 4Most of it matched. Two things came back different.
Mean to spread
The average says where the world sits; the spread says where its rule changes.
- Part 1The fitted line is the age of the mean: one prediction for the average country.
- Part 2Spending shows only at the 75th and 90th percentiles: about twenty days of gap.
- Part 3Every illness is measured by its spread before anything else is asked.
- Part 4The lines above zero run from 11.3 to 37.4 percent. The spread is the finding.
The slow wear wins
As lives lengthen, aching backs, joints and a troubled mind take the most healthy years.
- Part 3Every mover went from infection to wear, 56 countries to 78; none crossed back.
- Part 4Mental disorders lead at about 0.7 years of gap; backs and joints next, at about 0.3.